There are plenty of things you can criticize about Carson Hocevar. His aggression has gotten him into trouble, he’s made mistakes and created controversy, and there’s a growing list of drivers who probably aren’t sending him a Christmas card.
But if the argument is that Hocevar doesn’t have the performance to back up the confidence, that’s where I disagree. Because the numbers tell a different story.
| Stat |
Hocevar 2024 |
Hocevar 2025 |
Hocevar 2026* |
Blaney 2018* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Top 5s | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Top 10s | 6 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| Poles | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Avg. Finish | 18.3 | 21.6 | 16.73 | 14.96 |
*Hocevar’s 2026 and Blaney’s 2018 statistics reflect the first 26 races of their respective third full-time Cup Series seasons.
Hocevar’s improvement isn’t limited to one category. He already has his first Cup Series win, more than doubled his top-five total from last season and matched his entire 2025 top-10 total during the 26-race regular season.
He’s not just producing occasional flashes of speed, either. Hocevar is qualifying better, finishing better and spending more time at the front of the field than he did a year ago. His average finish has improved by nearly five positions from 2025, while he surpassed last season’s laps-led total before the Chase even began.
Ryan Blaney offers some useful perspective. At the same 26-race point of his third full-time Cup season, Blaney had the same number of top fives and poles as Hocevar does now. The comparison isn’t meant to suggest Hocevar is following Blaney’s exact trajectory, but it does show why judging a young driver as if he should already be a finished product can be misleading.
Before his recent slump, that progress was showing up in the standings, too. Hocevar left Indianapolis fifth in the Cup standings and as the highest-ranked Chevrolet driver.
Then August happened.
One top-20 finish across the final four regular-season races, three finishes of 31st or worse and two DNFs dropped him to 12th entering the Chase. His struggles continued at Darlington, adding more fuel to questions about his recent performance.
That stretch deserves criticism. But four or five bad races don’t erase what came before them.
Hocevar still has plenty to clean up. The aggression that makes him exciting can also put him in situations that cost himself and others. Finding the balance between that aggression and the speed he’s already shown is the next step.
You don’t have to like how Carson Hocevar races. You don’t have to like his personality, either. But the argument that the performance isn’t there? The numbers are making that harder and harder to defend.