After Ty Gibbs’ win at Iowa, things around the 16 driver cutoff line have shaken up tremendously.
After scoring the fourth most points of all drivers, Ross Chastain has catapulted himself back into the postseason picture. After a DNF at Nashville back in May, Chastain’s season was looking grim. He was at an abysmal 26th position in points, with only two top tens, both on superspeedways. Fast forward to August, and the melon man is only 47 points out.
Since the month of June began, Chastain has only finished outside of the top 20 twice in the past eight races. With three races remaining until “The Chase” begins, Chastain needs to have good performances at the short tracks of Richmond and New Hampshire. In addition, Chastain will need some luck on his side at Daytona.
In 2025, Chastain finished 19th at Richmond, and ninth at New Hampshire. So far in 2026, Chastain has an average finish of 19.6 on short tracks, with his best finishes being 16th at Martinsville, and of course last week’s seventh place finish in Iowa. Luckily for Chastain, Trackhouse Racing has been relatively strong on short tracks this season. Shane van Gisbergen scored 11th place finishes at Phoenix, and Martinsville, while also scoring a top five at North Wilkesboro. Despite Connor Zilisch’s brutal rookie season, he too scored an 11th place finish at Iowa, and finished third in the all star race at dover.
Chastain isn’t the only name along the cutline with his season in the balance. Team Penske’s Joey Logano sits in 13th currently after recording five straight top 15 finishes, and recording his first win of the season. Similar to Chastain, Logano was another driver who many doubted would make “The Chase” due to his struggles. He is now comfortably 89 points above the cutline.
23XI’s Bubba Wallace occupies 14th for now, but his season is defined by a rollercoaster of emotions. Despite having four top tens in the last nine races, Bubba Wallace has not scored back to back top ten performances since the fourth and fifth races of the season (Phoenix & Las Vegas). He is 68 points to the good. He seems safe for now, but one poor performance over these next three races can change everything.
In 15th is the afore mentioned teammate of Chastain, Shane van Gisbergen. When this new points format was announced, it seemed as if everyone was excited, except for team owner Justin Marks and the 97. Mainly due to the fact that van Gisbergen’s oval performances needed to improve in order to even make “The Chase”. In years past, that team could rely on winning the road courses as a way to pencil themselves in, but this year they can’t do that. This in essence, is forcing van Gisbergen to adapt to NASCAR oval racing quicker than many expected. However, van Gisbergen has done just that so far. In 2025, van Gisbergen only recorded three top 15 finishes on tracks that were not road courses or superspeedways. In 2026, he’s already doubled that number to six top 15 finishes, in just under 66% of the races. Impressive improvement from the kiwi.
In 16th and on the cutline is Team Penske’s Austin Cindric. It seems as if Cindric might as well buy real estate at the cutline because it feels like he’s around it every season. While Cindric’s average finish of 18.9 is an improvement of last season, he still has yet to find victory lane in 2026. Cindric does run up front consistently, as he has scored the 11th most stage points this season among all drivers (98). The issue with Cindric though is that he isn’t running in the lead, as he’s only led 13% the amount of laps this season as he did last season. A significant decrease. It still is super likely that he will make “The Chase”, as he has only finished outside the top 20 eight times this season, four of those being the first four races of the season. Cindric is currently 29 points ahead of the cutline.
In 17th, and the first driver out, is RFK Racing’s Ryan Preece. The northeastern racer kicked off the season with a win in NASCAR’s Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium. Unfortunately for Preece, this was just an exhibition race, and it did not award any points. On the contrary, Preece holds a 12.6 average finish on short tracks this season, which is tied for the 7th best among drivers in the Cup Series. With two of the upcoming races being short tracks, one of which is his home track, Preece has an opportunity to punch his ticket in the coming weeks. He sits 29 points behind the previously mentioned Austin Cindric.
There are other drivers further back who could make some noise in the coming weeks. 2012 Cup Series Champion Brad Keselowski is 48 points behind the cutline. Legacy Motor Club’s Erik Jones had an early exit at Iowa, but he still is only 50 points behind. Spire Motorsports has two of their cars inside “The Chase” currently, and they would love to get their third driver Michael McDowell in the mix. He sits 72 points back. Other drivers with realistic shots are Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger, who is coming off of a top ten finish in Iowa, and the Front Row Motorsports duo of Todd Gilliland and Zane Smith who are both roughly 100 points out.
Sports fans love the anticipation of playoffs, and NASCAR is no different. Who will make it in, and who’s championship hopes will end early?