The math is ugly, but Joey Logano knows it better than anyone. After finishing ninth at Charlotte on Sunday, the Team Penske driver admits his path to a fourth championship has narrowed to a razor’s edge. He can no longer rely on steady points or solid finishes to stay in the hunt. Yahoo Sports reports Logano now thinks winning a minimum of two out of the final four races is necessary for a chance. That is a tall order for any driver, let alone one trailing by 92 points.
Logano finished sixth in the Chase standings after the Bank of America 400, sitting behind leader Kyle Larson. Larson is on a historic tear, posting a 2.8 average finish through the first six Chase races, a mark noted by motorsports insider Jeff Gluck on “The Teardown.” Larson won the first stage at Charlotte and led 97 laps, the most of any driver. He now holds a 49-point lead over Denny Hamlin and a 51-point lead over Christopher Bell. The gap between the top four drivers is tight, but the gap between them and Logano is a chasm.
The Hard Math of a Comeback
Logano spoke to Tim Moore of the Motorsports Today podcast after the race, and his words were plain. “Again, at this point, I feel like we, we, uh, we gotta win at least two of the next four, maybe, maybe more to, to pull this one off,” Logano said. He still holds a positive attitude, noting that the upcoming tracks favor his car, but he admits the task has gotten harder. This is not the same Logano who won at Bristol on September 19 for his 40th career Cup victory. That win locked him into the Chase, but the next three races derailed his momentum. After a tire problem at Kansas caused a 20th-place result, he placed 10th at Las Vegas and ninth at Charlotte. Those three races cost him the lead he once held.
History shows Logano can climb out of holes. His postseason berth was secured by victories at North Wilkesboro in July and Richmond in August. He has won Cup titles in 2018, 2022, and 2024. The revived 10-race Chase format’s inaugural year would see a fourth title earned. But this time, the hole is deeper. He needs big points days, not just top-five runs, to catch Larson. The schedule offers hope with Phoenix on October 18, Talladega on October 25, Martinsville on November 1, and Homestead on November 8. Logano has won at Phoenix four times, including the 2024 title clincher. He also won at Martinsville in the fall of 2018. These tracks are his home turf, but home turf does not fix a points deficit.
Can Anyone Stop the Historic Run?
Kyle Larson is the man to beat, and he is driving like a man possessed. Despite failing to win a single race during the 26-race regular season, Larson has found a second gear since the Chase began. He has won two races in the postseason and finished in the top five four times. His crew chief, Cliff Daniels, has helped him find consistency that rivals the Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus era. Larson’s run has drawn comparisons to that record seven-title combination. Even if he cannot beat Martin Truex Jr.’s record for best average finish through the Chase, Larson is the clear favorite.
Chase Briscoe is trying to replicate the 2011 comeback of Tony Stewart. Briscoe won back-to-back races at Las Vegas and Charlotte to trim his deficit to 65 points. He cut the gap by 19 points at Charlotte alone. “I think we are certainly in contention,” Briscoe said. “We probably need to win another race or two, but we at least put ourselves in the ballgame. That’s all you can ask for.” His crew chief, James Small, has a more aggressive plan. “I think we’ve got to step on their throats while we can,” Small said. “I’m not going to let off the throttle pedal right now.” Small added that while Briscoe is mild-mannered, he becomes a “silent assassin” once he puts his helmet on.
The real question is whether Briscoe can win five of 10 races like Stewart did. It is a massive ask with four races left. Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell also remain in contention, sitting 49 and 51 points behind Larson respectively. But Larson’s consistency makes him the hardest driver to beat. He leads the field in stage points and laps led. The only way for Logano or Briscoe to win is to force a mistake or dominate on short tracks. The rest of the field must hope Larson slips up. Until then, the No. 5 car is the one to watch. Logano knows he needs to win, not just finish. The clock is ticking, and the track record says Larson is the favorite.